March was a milestone month for the stock market. On March 9, the bull run celebrated its seventh birthday – one for the record books. Starting its first uptick at the end of the recession in 2009, this bull market is the third longest in history and roughly two years longer than the average bull run. Reports of its imminent demise have been around since year three, with actual market results continually confounding Wall Street’s best. Mid-March, we saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average turn positive for the year, overcoming its bad start to the new year. So far, this market’s seventh year has turned ominous at various times – notably in February when it slid 15 percent to hover perilously close to the 20 percent traditionally required as a signal that a bull run is over. With this in mind, the investment community has greeted this birthday with muted enthusiasm – many brokers noted that more than 200 companies in the DJIA index are in bearish territory – down 20 percent or more from their 2015 highs. What are the trends for the market in the second quarter and beyond? Has the market topped out, and should we brace for change?
The experts have been no better at timing the market than the individual investor. The following factors are shaping forecasts and expectations.
Weighing all the data and opinions, many investment strategists are anticipating a continued bull run – one that remain modest and slow. Bearish analysts will continue to cite worldwide debt crises and geopolitical strife as growing threats, but their bullish colleagues still think there is life in the old bull run yet.